What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 18, 2011

Mortgage markets improved last week, buoyed by two days of out-sized gains. Mortgage rates bounced off their 8-week highs on much weaker-than-expected inflation data, and debt concerns abroad.

It's an abrupt change in mortgage rate momentum.

Since the Federal Reserve's March 2011 meeting, in which the Fed said rising energy costs are "putting upward pressure on inflation", inflation chatter has figured big for  mortgage rates. With each tick higher in gas prices; in every conversation on U.S. debt load; as fruits and vegetables get more expensive at the supermarket, Wall Street's fears of inflation have grown, and rate shoppers have suffered.

The connection between inflation and mortgage rates is straight-forward. Inflation is the devaluation of the U.S. dollar -- the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. As the dollar loses values, so do mortgage bonds, therefore, leading mortgage rates to rise, inevitably.

Leading up to last week, concerns peaked and rates did, too. And then, a strange thing happened. The government's March inflation report showed inflation well under control.

The results surprised Wall Street and the trades that had previously served to pump rate up, last week, ran in reverse.

The biggest gains were made Friday.

This week, inflation takes back-seat to housing data. There's a lot of it coming.

• Monday : Homebuilder Confidence Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday : Existing Home Sales
• Thursday : Housing Market Index

There's no data due Friday with markets closed for Good Friday.

This is a holiday-shortened week so expect low trading volume to render rates more erratic than typical. If you're not yet locked in to a mortgage rate with your lender, consider doing it this week.

How Does Your Work Commute Compare To Other Cities?

As part of the Census Bureau's data collection activities from 2005-2009, a number of interesting charts have been published at http://census.gov.

The data should not be confused with Census 2010 -- a separate survey conducted every 10 years. This is the first-ever, 5-year American Community Survey. Based on data from 3 million households, it details social, economic, housing, and demographic data "for every community in the nation".

Among the surveys:

• Median Household Income, Inflation-Adjusted To 2009 Dollars (Chart)
• Median Housing Value Of Owner-Occupied Housing Units (Chart)
• Percent Of Households That Are Married, With Children Under 18 (Chart)

The ACS survey also charts average commute time by county. The chart is shown at top.

Whether you live in a "long commute" town like Richmond, NY (40 minutes), or a "short commute" town like King, TX (3.4 minutes), rising gas prices have made commute times and distances relevant to everyone.

Since the start of 2011, the average price for gasoline is higher by 54 cents per gallon. Assuming 22 miles per gallon on a passenger car, that's an increase of 2.5 cents of gasoline per mile driven in the last 90 days. It's a cost that adds up quickly, and can affect a household budget. Plan for higher pump prices moving forward, too. Historically, gas prices surge between April and June.

The American Community Survey is loaded with charts and data. It can tell you a lot about your current neighborhood, and any neighborhood to which you may want to relocate. Then, to bridge the ACS data with community details such as school performance and typical home prices, talk to a real estate professional.